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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to CLE 19, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers ran ob at CLE 19 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model