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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 30

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.84 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model