Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Cleveland Browns 0

(10:10) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 24 for -3 yards (59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.72 EP
70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model