Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 86

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Cleveland Browns 0

(6:42) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 37 for 7 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.38 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 86, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model