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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(4:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Hogan pass short right to 80-R.Louis to CIN 40 for 8 yards (20-K.Russell).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model