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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to CIN 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 24-A.Jones to CLE 35 for 40 yards (40-D.Vitale).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model