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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 61

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:33) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to MIN 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 26 for 6 yards (54-S.Longa).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.52 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model