4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
DET Away

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DET
41.2%
MIN
58.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Case Keenum (MIN) -0.026 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.006 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DET

Zac Kerin G Out Knee
Dwayne Washington RB Out Quadricep
Kenny Golladay WR Questionable Hamstring
Travis Swanson C Questionable Ankle
Tavon Wilson S Questionable Shoulder
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Knee
Don Carey S Questionable Knee
Jarrad Davis LB Questionable Concussion

MIN

Sam Bradford QB Out Knee
Rashod Hill T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 14
–
MIN 7

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:50 FG DET (10:50) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke. DET 3 – MIN 0
  • Q2 01:11 TD MIN (1:11) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – MIN 6
  • Q3 10:45 FG DET (10:45) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke. DET 6 – MIN 7
  • Q3 08:04 TD DET (8:04) 21-A.Abdullah up the middle to MIN 1 for 2 yards (29-X.Rhodes). Detroit challenged the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 21-A.Abdullah up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 12 – MIN 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:33) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to MIN 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 26 for 6 yards (54-S.Longa).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 56%

    (8:57) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 19 yards to DET 21, impetus ends at DET 21, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 38%

    (7:07) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 31%

    (3:58) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to DET 8, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (10:50) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:21) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to DET 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 16 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:52) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 45 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 19 for 2 yards (34-Z.Zenner).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (10:45) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:12) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to DET 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds. PENALTY on DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DET 12.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (:50) 2-K.Forbath 39 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:18) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 54 yards to MIN 5, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-10-J.Abbrederis.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (10:46) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to DET 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:28) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to MIN 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 24 for 8 yards (45-C.Washington).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen. Penalty on MIN-65-P.Elflein, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 15 at the 91 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to MIN 44, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 44 for no gain (10-J.Abbrederis).