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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 18

Detroit Lions 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:45) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.36 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model