Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to DET 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds. PENALTY on DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DET 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.82 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model