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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 87

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(10:46) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to DET 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.72 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 87, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 45, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP