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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 40

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:57) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 19 yards to DET 21, impetus ends at DET 21, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.94 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP