Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 68

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

(8:28) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to MIN 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 24 for 8 yards (45-C.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.37 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model