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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 47

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:07) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model