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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(3:58) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to DET 8, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.21 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model