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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 10

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model