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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(13:25) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to DAL 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-10-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.35 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model