4th & Data
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

LA
25.2%
DAL
74.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.210 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.142 vs Jared Goff (LA) -0.168 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA on 4 more days rest than DAL

Predicted Final Score

LA 19
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

LA

Lamarcus Joyner S Out Hamstring
Cody Davis S Questionable Quadricep
John Sullivan C Questionable Hip

DAL

Chaz Green G Questionable Hip
Sean Lee LB Questionable Hamstring
Chidobe Awuzie CB Questionable Hamstring
Nolan Carroll CB Questionable Concussion
Kavon Frazier S Questionable Knee
Anthony Hitchens LB Questionable Knee
Stephen Paea DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 35
–
DAL 30

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:33 FG DAL (11:33) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. LA 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 07:12 FG LA (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – DAL 3
  • Q2 14:15 TD DAL (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 21-E.Elliott for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass caught in the flat on a wheel route on the touchdown catch. LA 3 – DAL 9
  • Q2 12:42 FG LA (12:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 6 – DAL 10
  • Q2 10:57 TD DAL (10:57) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – DAL 16
  • Q2 06:38 TD LA (6:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 12 – DAL 17
  • Q2 02:00 TD DAL (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-B.Butler for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. LA 13 – DAL 23
  • Q2 00:04 FG LA (:04) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 16 – DAL 24
  • Q3 07:29 FG LA (7:29) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 19 – DAL 24
  • Q3 03:09 TD LA (3:09) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 30-T.Gurley for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a skinny post. LA 25 – DAL 24
  • Q4 12:00 FG LA (12:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 29 – DAL 24
  • Q4 09:46 FG LA (9:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 32 – DAL 24
  • Q4 07:18 TD DAL (7:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 84-J.Hanna for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 32 – DAL 30
  • Q4 02:00 FG LA (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 35 – DAL 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (11:33) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 76%

    (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 80%

    (1:44) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to LA 25 for 4 yards (26-M.Barron).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 84%

    (12:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:40) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to DAL 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 10-R.Switzer MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-32-T.Hill at DAL 18. 32-T.Hill to DAL 18 for no gain (31-B.Jones). Penalty on DAL-23-B.Benwikere, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:25) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to DAL 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-10-P.Cooper.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:54) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to LA 27, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-T.Austin to LA 34 for 7 yards (84-J.Hanna).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (7:29) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 25%

    (5:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to LA 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-T.Austin to LA 18 for 7 yards (57-D.Wilson). PENALTY on LA-58-C.Littleton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at LA 18.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:37) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to LA 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-T.Austin to LA 22 for 6 yards (41-K.Smith). PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 22.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (12:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%

    (9:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%

    (:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott to LA 39 for 9 yards (43-J.Johnson).