4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 53

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Los Angeles Rams 19

What Actually Happened

(5:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to LA 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-T.Austin to LA 18 for 7 yards (57-D.Wilson). PENALTY on LA-58-C.Littleton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at LA 18.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.61 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP