Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(1:37) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to LA 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-T.Austin to LA 22 for 6 yards (41-K.Smith). PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model