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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 29 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(9:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.68 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model