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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 48

Dallas Cowboys 30 – Los Angeles Rams 35

What Actually Happened

(:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott to LA 39 for 9 yards (43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP