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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 31

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model