Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 88

Miami Dolphins 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(1:18) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to 50, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.70 EP
73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 88, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model