4th & Data
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NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 21:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread -4.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

NO
70.9%
MIA
29.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • NO offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.107 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.148 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NO crossing 6 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

NO 24
–
MIA 18
Projected margin: NO by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NO

Ben Heeney LB Out Knee
Terron Armstead T Questionable Shoulder
Sterling Moore CB Questionable Chest
Willie Snead WR Questionable Hamstring
Zach Strief T Questionable Knee

MIA

Eric Smith T Out Knee
Jordan Phillips DT Doubtful Ankle
Jay Ajayi RB Questionable Knee
Kiko Alonso LB Questionable Shoulder
Isaac Asiata G Questionable Ankle
John Denney LS Questionable Hamstring
Rey Maualuga LB Questionable Hamstring
Kenny Stills WR Questionable Hand
Alterraun Verner CB Questionable Hamstring
Chase Allen LB Questionable Neck
Jakeem Grant WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 20
–
MIA 0

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 00:04 FG NO (:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – MIA 0
  • Q3 09:06 TD NO (9:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – MIA 0
  • Q4 12:37 FG NO (12:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 13 – MIA 0
  • Q4 04:02 TD NO (4:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – MIA 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 NO 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 85%

    (14:19) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 20 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:26) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to MIA 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-16-B.Coleman, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 33.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 19 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (3:01) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to NO 12, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:54) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to MIA 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Landry to MIA 32 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on MIA-27-M.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 32.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 20 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:18) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to 50, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%

    (10:44) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle to MIA 16 for 1 yard (96-V.Taylor).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:02) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NO 21, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-T.Ginn to NO 38 for 17 yards (26-D.Williams).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:57) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to MIA 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 14-J.Landry ran ob at MIA 26 for 9 yards (33-T.Edmunds).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:19) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 42 yards to NO 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at NO 39 for 9 yards (92-J.Denney).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (12:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:48) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NO 23, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on NO-34-J.Hardee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 23. Penalty on NO-26-P.Williams, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:47) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short left to 32-K.Drake.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 67%

    (1:17) 22-M.Ingram right guard to MIA 32 for no gain (93-N.Suh).