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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(7:02) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NO 21, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-T.Ginn to NO 38 for 17 yards (26-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP