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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model