Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 0 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(9:48) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NO 23, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on NO-34-J.Hardee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 23. Penalty on NO-26-P.Williams, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model