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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 0 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short left to 32-K.Drake.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -1.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model