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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 32

New Orleans Saints 20 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 22-M.Ingram right guard to MIA 32 for no gain (93-N.Suh).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.02 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP