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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.15 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model