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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 96

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:32) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to PIT 45, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at BAL 46 for 9 yards (58-J.Freeny).

The Three Options

GO -3.84 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 53, worth -2.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model