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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

PIT
54.4%
BAL
45.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.004 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.130 EPA/dropback
  • BAL defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
BAL 21
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

PIT

James Harrison LB Questionable Illness
Ramon Foster G Questionable Thumb
Sean Davis S Questionable Ankle
Marcus Gilbert T Questionable Hamstring
Michael Mitchell S Questionable Hamstring

BAL

Jaylen Hill CB Out Thigh
Brandon Williams DT Out Foot
Maxx Williams TE Out Ankle
Benjamin Watson TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 26
–
BAL 9

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:26 FG PIT (:26) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – BAL 0
  • Q2 07:28 FG PIT (7:28) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. Penalty on BAL-29-M.Humphrey, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 03:32 TD PIT (3:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-L.Bell right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – BAL 0
  • Q2 00:45 TD PIT (:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 19 – BAL 0
  • Q3 12:36 FG BAL (12:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 19 – BAL 3
  • Q3 06:07 TD BAL (6:07) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 17-M.Wallace for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 19 – BAL 9
  • Q4 02:30 TD PIT (2:30) 26-L.Bell right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 25 – BAL 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 54%

    (10:53) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to PIT 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-41-A.Levine Sr..

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (:26) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:10) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to PIT 30, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:19) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to BAL 19, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro. PENALTY on BAL-34-A.Collins, Offensive Holding, 11 yards, enforced at BAL 21.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 16 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:32) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to PIT 45, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at BAL 46 for 9 yards (58-J.Freeny).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to PIT 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown to PIT 30 for 6 yards (88-V.Mayle).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 16 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 85%

    (12:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%

    (7:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:28) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to BAL 23, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:48) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to BAL 32, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-M.Campanaro MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 32. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 32 for no gain (55-A.Moats). PENALTY on BAL-36-C.Clark, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 32.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 48%

    (9:42) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to BAL 14, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 33%

    (5:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 12-M.Campanaro INTERCEPTED by 31-M.Hilton (50-R.Shazier) at PIT 32. 31-M.Hilton to BAL 49 for 19 yards.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Matthews (25-A.Burns).