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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 24

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(12:36) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.44 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model