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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 13

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model