Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(14:10) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to PIT 30, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.90 EP
48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model