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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to ARI 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-86-R.Seals-Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.46 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP