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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

ARI
41.7%
PHI
58.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 21
–
PHI 23
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

ARI

D.J. Humphries T Out Knee
Robert Nkemdiche DT Out Calf
Alex Boone G Questionable Chest
John Brown WR Questionable Quadricep
J.J. Nelson WR Questionable Hamstring

PHI

Fletcher Cox DT Out Calf
Ronald Darby CB Out Ankle
Wendell Smallwood RB Questionable Knee
Corey Graham S Questionable Hamstring
Jaylen Watkins S Questionable Hamstring
Destiny Vaeao DT Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 7
–
PHI 34

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:25 TD PHI (8:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 88-T.Burton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 03:57 TD PHI (3:57) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-K.Martin]. ARI 0 – PHI 13
  • Q1 00:54 TD PHI (:54) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 82-T.Smith for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – PHI 20
  • Q2 11:47 TD ARI (11:47) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 12-J.Brown for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – PHI 21
  • Q3 09:22 FG PHI (9:22) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. ARI 7 – PHI 24
  • Q3 06:29 TD PHI (6:29) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – PHI 30
  • Q4 02:05 FG PHI (2:05) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. ARI 7 – PHI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:59) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to PHI 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 38-K.Barner to PHI 46 for 19 yards (46-A.Brewer; 57-J.Bynes).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:44) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to PHI 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 38-K.Barner to ARI 15 for 76 yards (10-B.Golden). ARI-46-A.Brewer was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 18 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:34) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to PHI 36, Center-97-J.Mauro, downed by ARI-30-R.Ford.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (9:10) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to ARI 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-86-R.Seals-Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:00) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to PHI 23, Center-97-J.Mauro, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:58) 8-D.Jones punts 57 yards to ARI 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 33-K.Williams to ARI 23 for 7 yards (59-J.Walker).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:31) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to PHI 13, Center-97-J.Mauro. 38-K.Barner to PHI 28 for 15 yards (35-E.Penny).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%

    (9:22) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:28) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to PHI 37, Center-97-J.Mauro, downed by ARI-80-I.Momah.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:30) 2-A.Lee punts 41 yards to PHI 18, Center-97-J.Mauro, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%

    (1:40) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to ARI 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (14:55) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 38 for 4 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:39) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-J.Gresham to PHI 40 for 14 yards (23-R.McLeod).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 53%

    (11:20) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 13-Ja.Brown to PHI 32 for 6 yards (21-P.Robinson).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (2:05) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.