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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to ARI 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.66 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model