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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(12:39) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 84-J.Gresham to PHI 40 for 14 yards (23-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.58 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model