4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(11:20) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 13-Ja.Brown to PHI 32 for 6 yards (21-P.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.82 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model