Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to PHI 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 38-K.Barner to ARI 15 for 76 yards (10-B.Golden). ARI-46-A.Brewer was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.88 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model