Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(2:34) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to PHI 36, Center-97-J.Mauro, downed by ARI-30-R.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -3.49 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 86, worth -5.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model