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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 82

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to BAL 37, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 82, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 40, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model