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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 16:05 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

BAL
44.9%
OAK
55.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: EJ Manuel (LV) -0.145 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.017 EPA/dropback (LV starting EJ Manuel in place of Derek Carr)
  • LV defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
OAK 22
Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

BAL

Brandon Williams DT Out Foot
Maxx Williams TE Out Ankle
Jaylen Hill CB Doubtful Thigh
Anthony Levine S Questionable Thigh
Jeremy Maclin WR Questionable Hand
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Achilles
Benjamin Watson TE Questionable Calf
Lardarius Webb S Questionable Thigh

OAK

David Amerson CB Questionable Concussion
Derek Carr QB Questionable Back
Gareon Conley CB Questionable Shin
Gabe Jackson G Questionable Foot
DeAndre Washington RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 30
–
OAK 17

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:51 TD BAL (12:51) 88-V.Mayle left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – OAK 0
  • Q1 11:22 TD BAL (11:22) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass short left to 87-J.Cook to LV 45 for 3 yards (48-P.Onwuasor) [55-T.Suggs]. FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-22-J.Smith at LV 47. 22-J.Smith for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – OAK 0
  • Q1 05:11 FG LV (5:11) 2-G.Tavecchio 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. BAL 14 – OAK 3
  • Q2 12:03 TD BAL (12:03) 37-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – OAK 3
  • Q2 09:20 TD LV (9:20) 3-E.Manuel pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 21 – OAK 9
  • Q2 05:21 FG BAL (5:21) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 24 – OAK 10
  • Q3 03:50 TD LV (3:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 24 – OAK 16
  • Q4 13:13 FG BAL (13:13) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 27 – OAK 17
  • Q4 02:29 FG BAL (2:29) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 30 – OAK 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (5:11) 2-G.Tavecchio 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (5:21) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:45) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to BAL 37, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%

    (:35) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to LV 5, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:11) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to BAL 30, Center-59-J.Condo. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 40 for 10 yards (41-E.Harris).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:00) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to LV 27, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 14 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:49) 7-M.King punts 62 yards to BAL 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 24 for 9 yards (59-J.Condo, 47-J.Cowser).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:40) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to LV 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 30-J.Richard to LV 35 for 7 yards (37-J.Allen; 41-A.Levine Sr.).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (13:13) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 39%

    (8:58) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 82%

    (2:29) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 20 at the 85 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:05) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass incomplete short left to 84-C.Patterson [69-W.Henry].