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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 74

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to LV 28, Center-46-M.Cox. 30-J.Richard to LV 35 for 7 yards (37-J.Allen; 41-A.Levine Sr.).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model