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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 3

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP