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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 26

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.11 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model