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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 14

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 2-G.Tavecchio 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.35 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model