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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:31) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to JAX 8, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 19-M.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.41 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model